OBAMA HAS UPHILL BATTLE
Barack Obama is all the rage right now. Even though Hillary Clinton has won the uncontested and non delegate state of Florida (by the way Democrats, if you see Hillary Clinton as the candidate of change please explain to me what Alcee Hastings was doing on stage next to Mrs. Clinton last night). The media is tap dancing in unison with stories about the Clinton’s campaign, in peril, on the ropes, and or deader than Jerry Garcia.
Bollocks.
One needs to look at the big picture, or more precisely the very delegates the candidates are fighting, and in some cases smearing for. Obama has won Iowa and South Carolina. Hillary Clinton won new Hampshire. That puts the delegate count in Hillary’s favor by a good 75 – 256 to 181.. now 75 delegates is not a large deficit going into super Tuesday yet you have to look at the even bigger picture. Obama has not shown he can win in a big state. Take for example six states with the larger delegate counts. California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Clinton leads Senator Obama by an average of 22 percentage points. That’s 1228 delegates. is she guaranteed to win them all? no but Pennsylvania where she leads by 20 has 188 delegates, Ohio where she leads by 26 has 161, and New York has 281. She leads by 23.
Now the question is if you are Obama “where do you concentrate on in the next six days? one state a day? that is not enough saturation. Clinton has the luxury of not having to worry about her national numbers when her state by state numbers are strong in all the right places.
The New Stereophonic Bert Spivey…